- Hit Rate 2x
- % of coins that doubled market cap from the KOL alert moment. Measured on the same day using kol_daily close data. Limited sample: check n on each card.
- Rug Rate
- % of coins where market cap dropped below 35% of entry market cap. This indicates near-total value loss.
- Median X
- Median multiple of current market cap vs entry market cap in the outcome sample. This is not a trading return; price can move before or after the alert.
- Entry Mcap
- Median market cap at the KOL alert moment. It shows the typical coin size where KOLs enter each narrative.
- Stage breakdown
- Alert distribution by stage: Candidate (2 KOLs) / Confirmed (3 KOLs) / Crowded (4+ KOLs).
- Activity (last 30 days)
- Daily bars for coins alerted in this narrative. Height is relative to the most active day in that period for the same narrative.
- Absurdist
- Coins with no identifiable narrative by keywords: random names and no clear theme. This is the largest category (67%) because most memecoins have no recognizable theme.
- No buy signals
- These are historical statistics, not recommendations. Past outcomes do not predict the future. More than 90% of memecoins fail long term.